Impact Assessment of Wet and Dry Spell on Agriculture Productivity of Chhattisgarh, India

Abstract

The impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle specifically changes in precipitation patterns and their impact on agriculture in the Chhattisgarh region, the study examines historical rainfall data from 1986 to 2021 and divides the area into 27 sub-divisions for a thorough examination. The study distinguishes between wet and dry spells by using a threshold value of 2.5 mm. To assess the likelihood of wet days, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model is used, and a correlation analysis finds that a proba¬bility range of 55 to 65% correlates to the maximum agricultural productivity. According to the findings, the best time for the greatest crop yield in the study area is during the rainy season (MJJASO). Farmers are urged to start planting in the second or third week of June to coincide with the onset of rainfall, allowing crops to use rainwater from July through August. For the research area, the period from the end of June to the beginning of October is rated as the most favorable for agricultural operations. Overall, this study improves our understanding of climate conditions, particularly rainfall patterns, and its findings provide useful insights for the agricultural sector and other stakeholders.

Keywords: dry and wet spell, impact assessment, agricultural productivity, climate change, Chhattisgarh region