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Adaptive Capacity Assessment for A Flood Vulnerable Region through Land Use Modelling and Socio Economic and Physical Indicators

A. Narendr1, S. Das2, V. Shivamurthy1, and B. H. Aithal1*

  1. Ranbir and Chitra Gupta School of Infrastructure Design and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 721302, India
  2. Architecture, Town and Regional Planning, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur 711103, India

*Corresponding author. Tel.: +91-3222-304944; fax: +91-3222-304944 E-mail address: (B. H. Aithal)


Resistance from climate extremes requires robust adaptation strategy, especially in regions that have greater density and limited resource availability. Weather extremes, such as anomalous precipitation leading to floods have now become a frequent global phenomenon. These situations could lead to unforeseen disaster if the region remains under-equipped to adapt against the vulnerabilities. Therefore, the research objective aims to explore the current status of adaptability within proposed capital region of Andhra Pradesh on backdrop of future urban growth that region may undergo. Andhra Pradesh Capital Region (APCR) has experienced severe flood events in past due to intense rainfall, overflowing Krishna river and causing inundation due to sudden releases from reservoirs upstream. An index based assessment of Mandalas were carried out by selecting relevant factors through various literature reviews. The method comprises of assigning comparative scores to the mandals based on their performance for each parameter and categorizing them on a Likert scale of 1 to 5. The selected parameters are then prioritized by adding weights through pairwise comparison techniques using Analytical Hierarchical Process. Risk Map for the region was developed using weighted sum of flood vulnerability factors and urban development scenario of 2050. The results substantiate that the regional vulnerability is cumulatively influenced by exposure and sensitivity factors. The empirical findings identify female literacy and elevation as major contributor to flood vulnerability. Requirement for immediate interventions were suggested for the mandals with higher vulnerability and greater scope of urban transformation. The proposed method will help in quick identification of susceptible mandals that may suffer higher vulnerability in future. The method proposed will also be effective for formulation policies for redirecting scarce resources in areas needing adaptation against climate disasters.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, green field development, index-based method, urban transformation, vulnerability assessment

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